Air Power Won’t Free Iran: Why Lasting Change Must Come from Within

At a time when global debate on Iran is dominated by military escalation and geopolitical negotiations, former Italian Prime Minister-designate and IMF Executive Director Carlo Cottarelli delivered a crucial reality check at the "Iran Beyond War" conference in Rome.


His core message? Neither foreign bombs nor diplomatic appeasement can determine Iran’s destiny—only the Iranian people can.

Drawing on economics, history, and international relations, Cottarelli outlined why the regime’s apparent strength is an illusion and why democratic change must root itself from within.


1. The Fallacy of Military Intervention

History proves that strategic bombing and external air power rarely dictate a country's political trajectory. Cottarelli pointed to key historical parallels:

World War II: Massive aerial campaigns over Britain and Germany failed to force a political surrender on their own.


2. Economic Decay is Self-Inflicted

As a top economist, Cottarelli cut through the argument that Iran’s economic crisis is merely a byproduct of recent international sanctions or military tensions:

Structural Failures: For decades, Iran’s economy has underperformed due to heavy state control, systemic corruption, and misguided fiscal policies.

Prioritizing Ideology Over People: Resources that should have driven domestic growth, youth employment, and public welfare were routinely diverted toward foreign geopolitical ambitions.

Brain Drain: Persistent economic stagnation and rising inflation have forced generations of talented young Iranians to seek opportunities abroad.

Even without sanctions or external pressure, the regime’s economic foundation was already crumbling from its own internal contradictions.


3. Escalating Repression Reveals Weakness, Not Strength

The sharp rise in arrests and executions across Iran is not a display of authority—it is a symptom of regime insecurity.

"They have to kill because they are afraid of losing their power."

Decades of protests led by women, students, and workers demonstrate a deep-seated demand for fundamental freedom. Like apartheid in South Africa or the Berlin Wall, authoritarian systems that rely on fear often appear indestructible—until they suddenly collapse under their own weight.


4. A Clear Democratic Roadmap

Rejecting the idea that the international community should dictate Iran's future, Cottarelli emphasized that democratic nations still have a moral duty to champion universal principles.

He highlighted the Ten-Point Plan presented by opposition leader Maryam Rajavi as a credible, democratic roadmap for Iran’s transition, rooted in:

Free and fair elections

Separation of religion and state

Gender equality and minority rights

An independent judiciary and a non-nuclear Iran


The Bottom Line

Foreign powers cannot bomb a nation into democracy, nor can diplomatic talks preserve a broken status quo. The collapse of totalitarian regimes comes from within—and the responsibility of the free world is to support the Iranian people as they reclaim their own future.

https://www.maryam-rajavi.com/en/conference-italy-iran-beyond-war-solution-to-the-iranian-crisis/

Location: Paris, France

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