European Strategy on Iran: The Case for Engaging the Organized Opposition

Former German ambassador Dr. Hans-Ulrich Seidt presented one of the conference’s most extensive critiques of existing European policy. He stated that Germany and the European Union have traditionally concentrated on individual issues—such as nuclear capabilities, missiles, regional intervention, and human rights—while failing to address the fundamental character of the ruling system and the domestic forces capable of changing it.

Ambassador Seidt argued that neither engagement nor military intervention has delivered the intended results:

“Neither diplomatic negotiations with the regime nor a war begun by external powers have so far been able to move the regime in Tehran to change its domestic and foreign policy,” he said.

The Necessity of Organized Internal Resistance

Instead, Amb. Seidt stressed that European strategy must recognize the importance of an organized political force inside Iran.

“Without organized resistance networks, without the existence and decades-long continuity of an opposition structure, without a long-term program for a secular and democratic republic, as well as a concrete plan for a time-limited transitional phase after the end of the regime, political change in Iran is presently hardly conceivable,” he noted.

Amb. Seidt specifically identified the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) as possessing organizational continuity and a structured political program. He argued that European governments risk ignoring a major strategic factor if they exclude these organizations from their calculations or refuse to engage in dialogue with them.

Moving Beyond Spontaneous Protests

Former Bundestag member Leo Dautzenberg emphasized the immense personal sacrifices sustaining the Resistance over the decades. Reflecting on nearly 30 years of engagement with the Iranian opposition, he recalled meeting individuals who lost relatives, endured imprisonment, persecution, and exile, yet transformed those experiences into continued commitment.

“I have experienced how much strength, lifetime, and personal sacrifice this Resistance costs,” Dautzenberg said.

He further argued that public dissatisfaction alone cannot bring about a transition from dictatorship:

“Millions can reject a system,” he noted, but moving from spontaneous protest to meaningful political change requires “organization, networking, endurance, political leadership, and a clear idea of the day after.”